NSW Ocean Outlook

The NSW Ocean Outlook program, led by the Sydney Institute of Marine Science (SIMS) and funded by the Office of the NSW Chief Scientist and Engineer, is a science-driven research initiative that generates knowledge to support the sustainable use and management of the NSW Marine Estate. This work strengthens the blue economy and supports industry, made possible through collaboration with leading researchers and the use of national research infrastructure, including the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS).

Over two years, the program is addressing four distinct scientific aims focused on oceanographic conditions, threatened species, fisheries and coastal water quality. The data generated has wide-ranging applications—from climate forecasting and pollution detection to informing conservation strategies, coastal protection, sustainable fisheries management and a deeper understanding of climate change impacts on NSW’s marine and coastal ecosystems.

Aim 1 of the NSW Ocean Outlook program, led by Emeritus Professor Rob Harcourt from Macquarie University, uses satellite-linked tags to track the real-time movements of marine turtles and New Zealand fur seals in NSW waters. Delivered in partnership with SIMS, Taronga Conservation Society Australia (Taronga), and the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service (NSW NPWS), the program draws on the expertise of the IMOS Animal Tracking Facility to deliver high-impact, dual-purpose data.

These non-invasive instruments, attached to the carapace (shell) of turtles or the back of seals, collect both behavioural data including location, time and depth, and oceanographic information, effectively transforming the animals into oceanographers. Tags are designed to detach naturally within a year. For seals, this occurs during their annual moult, and for turtles, the tag is detached as the animal sheds its scutes.

Temperature profiles collected by the tags are helping to fill key observational gaps in under-sampled regions of the NSW coast. These data directly support Aim 2 by informing oceanographic modelling, improving understanding of circulation patterns, and enhancing forecasts of extreme events such as East Coast Lows. The information is valuable for hazard planning, climate impact assessments and the protection of vulnerable coastal ecosystems.

Deployments on threatened marine turtles provide information on the southern edge of their range, addressing a critical knowledge gap in the context of species shifting southward in response to climate change. Movement ecology data will provide insights into how these species use habitat and respond to environmental conditions. The program also enables comparisons between rehabilitated and wild turtles to guide adaptive conservation management.

Fur seal deployments, carried out at Montague Island in May 2025, are targeting the under-observed NSW south coast, the highly variable region south of the East Australian Current separation zone. These tags are collecting data to improve understanding of coastal ocean dynamics in this complex and poorly understood region.

So far in the collaboration with Taronga and NSW NPWS , 21 marine turtles, including loggerhead, hawksbill and green species, have been tagged at sites on the NSW mid-north coast and near metropolitan Sydney. In addition, 10 New Zealand fur seals have been tagged at Narooma. All of these animals are now at sea collecting vital data for analysis and modelling.

We look forward to seeing where these animals travel and what insights they provide into the changing dynamics of NSW coastal waters.

Sentinel-2 image of the Clarence River outflow 10th April 2022 NSW DCCEEW. Image courtesy of the European Space Agency EU.

Aim 2: Enhancing coastal observations and oceanographic models

Aim 2 of the NSW Ocean Outlook program, led by Professor Moninya Roughan (UNSW Sydney), is focused on expanding ocean observations and developing a high-resolution oceanographic model to better understand and forecast change in NSW’s coastal waters. Coordinated through the Sydney Institute of Marine Science (SIMS), the program addresses critical knowledge gaps essential for managing the NSW Marine Estate, particularly around fisheries, water quality, megafauna, and ocean dynamics.

This work leverages IMOS infrastructure including ocean gliders, moorings, coastal radar and sensors on commercial fishing vessels (Fish-SOOP) to collect real-time observations of temperature, salinity, oxygen and chlorophyll.

UNSW is leading development of a NSW-specific implementation of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), known as SEA-COFS, to simulate multi-decadal oceanographic conditions. The model integrates physical observations with data from animal-borne instruments (tagged turtles and fur seals deployed under Aim 1) to capture the vertical and horizontal structure of the coastal ocean. This includes subsurface temperature profiles that are vital for understanding the dynamics of marine heatwaves.

The integrated model aims to support predictions of marine heatwaves, East Coast Lows and extreme freshwater outflow events—phenomena increasingly recognised as major drivers of ecological change. The project is also targeting the relatively under-observed southern third of NSW waters to investigate ocean dynamics in this region.

Aim 2 is particularly focused on understanding the interactions between ocean warming and coastal “freshening” from extreme rainfall, and how these compound stressors affect marine ecosystems, fishery productivity and coastal risk. These insights are essential for improving water quality management, predicting contaminant dispersal and supporting the sustainability of fish species of recreational and commercial importance.

By providing high-resolution data and modelling tools, Aim 2 is strengthening NSW’s capacity to forecast and respond to climate-driven change. The outputs will inform coastal planning, disaster preparedness and adaptive management, contributing to long-term resilience across the marine estate.

Aim 3: Tracking commercially important fish species

Aim 3 of the NSW Ocean Outlook program, led by Dr Matt Taylor (NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development) and Professor Iain Suthers (UNSW Sydney), is focused on understanding the movement, behaviour and habitat use of two important fishery species: blue-spotted flathead and silver trevally. While flathead are a staple of NSW’s commercial and recreational fisheries, fine-scale data on their spatial ecology has been limited. Silver trevally, once in decline, are now recovering, yet key knowledge gaps remain around their behaviour and environmental drivers.

Over the past six months, the SIMS NSW Ocean Outlook field team has completed a major tagging effort across 800 km of coastline. A total of 67 flathead and 75 trevally have been tagged using acoustic telemetry, with deployments concentrated near high-density IMOS listening stations at Coffs Harbour, Botany Bay, Sydney Harbour, Jervis Bay and Narooma. These tags transmit for around 18 months, with detections and movement data already being collected.

The research is a collaborative effort between SIMS, UNSW and NSW DPIRD. Strong engagement with commercial charter operators and recreational fishers has been essential to the program’s success and will remain a priority for the future of the work.

As detections continue to build over the coming year, the data will be analysed to improve understanding of how these species migrate, use their habitats and respond to environmental conditions. These insights will directly inform stock assessments and adaptive fisheries management.

Importantly, movement data from Aim 3 will be integrated with oceanographic observations from Aims 1 and 2 to build a more complete picture of species–environment interactions, ultimately strengthening the evidence base for sustainable fisheries management in NSW.

Aim 4: Advancing water quality monitoring

Aim 4 of the NSW Ocean Outlook program, led by Professors Justin Seymour and Martina Doblin (UTS, SIMS), is transforming how coastal water quality is monitored in New South Wales. While traditional techniques offer limited resolution on pollution sources, Aim 4 applies advanced molecular and chemical tools to trace contaminants with much greater accuracy. These include DNA sequencing, microbial community profiling, qPCR for sewage and antibiotic resistance markers, and high-precision chemical testing for pollutants such as PFAS and pharmaceuticals.

This work is being delivered in collaboration with the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW), SIMS, UTS and the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS), building on the Department’s existing monitoring efforts. Together, these partners aim to fill critical knowledge gaps, identify pollution sources, and improve the speed and accuracy of response to pollution events—protecting both environmental and human health.

So far, over 117 samples from 39 locations have been collected and analysed during Mid-Coast sampling campaigns. qPCR analyses targeting sewage and antibiotic resistance markers are complete, and samples have been submitted for microbial profiling using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. In parallel, coastal outflow samples from three major rivers—Macleay, Shoalhaven and Bega—have been analysed for chemical contaminants.

Researchers are now refining techniques to more accurately detect and quantify key microbial groups in coastal waters. These tools will provide more timely, detailed insights into how extreme weather events and heavy rainfall drive changes in water quality and ecosystem health.

Ultimately, Aim 4 strengthens the state’s ability to monitor coastal systems in near real time, supporting better risk management, improved public health outcomes and long-term water quality planning across the NSW coast.

More Information

For further details about the NSW Ocean Outlook program, or for media and stakeholder enquiries, please contact Project Manager Isobel Lerpiniere at isobel.lerpiniere@sims.org.au. We welcome opportunities to collaborate, share insights and support informed decision-making for the future of NSW’s marine environment.